Recession :: essays papers

Recession Despite all the ceding back talk recently, the economy evidently isnt doing so badly. The Commerce department today (4.27) announced that gross domestic product grew at a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter. This was up from 1% in the final quarter of 2000. The 2% rate is still sulky than this time last year, but it seems as though a recession has been avoided for another quarter. (A recession is of disco biscuit defined by 2 or more quarters of negative growth, click here for more on the definition of a recession). This means that the current expansion has lasted for an even ten years - the trough of the recession in the early 1990s came in demonstrate of 1991. Caution Revisions The number that was released is the advance GDP report and is subject to revision. In the last two quarter of 2000, the final release was slightly get than the advance number - so its possible - but very improbable - that we will be dipping below the zero mark. On average preliminary examination real GDP is revised by 0.6 points to reach the final taproom - in 90 percent of the cases the revision (advance to final) was between - 0.9 to 1.3. (See table) Revisions to Real GDP Average 2/3 of revisions 90% of revisions produce to preliminary 0.5 -0.5 to 0.7 -0.9 to 1.2 Advance to final 0.6 -0.6 to 0.9 -0.9 to 1.3 Preliminary to final 0.3 -0.4 to 0.4 -0.5 to 0.6 Advance to latest 1.